Scruff surveys 13,000 gay men on political issues

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It’s been 505 days since Donald Trump descended his golden escalator and 570 days since Hillary Clinton said on YouTube “I’m running for president.”

Gay dating app SCRUFF released the results of their fourth SCRUFFtistic, where they take one final look at the 2016 presidential election. Their first was a national survey of primary voters, followed by state primary surveys in both California and New York. In this final survey, they asked more questions about the politics of their users instead of simply asking them who they plan to vote for.

Nearly 13,000 SCRUFF guys took the full survey and answered dozens of questions on matters ranging from transgender rights to gun control to split ticket voting.

ELECTION 2016 POLL RESULTS

Here are the results from the the SCRUFF likely voter model of gay, bisexual, trans and queer guys:

Hillary Clinton is the clear favorite with support from roughly 79 percent of GBTQ guys. Donald Trump is supported by around 11% of GBTQ guys, while third party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein receive the support of roughly 2.5% of guys. An additional 5% of GBTQ voters either plan to vote for another candidate or are undecided. Here’s how that translates into the Electoral College map:

SCRUFF’s results largely mirror the scientific surveys of LGBT voters. Of course, the data only include men, but belonging to the “LGBT” group may be a more predictive demographic factor than race, age, geography, or even education level, according to a basic analysis by Carl Bialik at FiveThirtyEight, the poll blog. More about that is available at FiveThirtyEight.com

Here’s are the states where Clinton and Trump enjoy the strongest relative support from the GBTQ community:

Donald Trump’s vaunted outreach to LGBT voters seems to have had little impact. Trump invited Peter Thiel, the billionaire PayPal investor, to be the first openly gay person to address a Republican National Convention. Trump recently held up a rainbow flag at a rally and surrogates have worked to soften his message on LGBT rights. But the overwhelming response shows that LGBT voters still say #ImWithHer. As a way to assess the efficacy of Donald Trump’s outreach to queer voters, we asked this question:

Also, guys told us that the 2016 election has pushed them toward the Democratic party, even as national trends show that voters are less likely than ever to register with a party when they register to vote:

That said, a solid third of respondents still plan to “split the ticket,” or vote for candidates of different parties. 63% of guys said they plan to vote for the same party across their ballot, but 37% say they will vote for different parties.

POLITICAL OPINIONS OF GAY MEN

Since their previous polling had demonstrated a strong overall preference for Democratic candidates amongst GBTQ men in the U.S., we decided to ask specific political questions in this survey to get a more nuanced look at the political views of gay men. Here are some of their favorite stats:

GENERAL POLITICS

RACIAL JUSTICE

GUN CONTROL

Interesting: There is a strong party correlation on this question:

Interesting strong party split on these questions:

ELECTION 2016 THEMATIC QUESTIONS

Q? – Russia is a growing threat to our national security.